史密斯夫妇

在全球大战略格局迅猛变化的今天，东亚地区的国家也在积极调整自己的地缘战略布局。    The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command lambasted the US for "collusion and provocations" on 8 July, stressing that its troops are on high alert and are ready to enhance combat preparedness to safeguard China's national sovereignty, security, and peace. It also accused the US of encouraging Taiwan's secessionist sentiment.,"There are three major channels to deliver political signals to Taipei," explained Dr. Chang Ching, a research fellow from the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies and a lead military expert on the People's Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan. "They are spokespersons of Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, Taiwan Affairs Office and the Defense Ministry. It is relatively unusual to direct a PLA spokesman to deliver such political signals.",Dr. Chang suggests that the PLA's statement appears to be a new psychological operation aimed at the US and Taiwan. The military expert has drawn attention to the fact that "for any sophisticated and well organized military maneuvers, it is always necessary to have proper prior preparation." As such, he suggested that the exercises and the US visit are not causally linked.,"The possibility for the People’s Liberation Army to conduct an improvised military exercise simply reacting to any United States political figure visiting Taiwan is extremely low," the professor argued. "The visit of the US Senator Rick Scott to Taiwan, the premeditated military [exercises] in airspace and waters around Taiwan and the PLA routine press conference just happened on the same day. And a smart PLA spokesman grabbed the chance to exercise his psychological warfare skill and achieve the perception of warfare effects.",China's Military Ready to Prevent Attempts to Achieve ‘Taiwan Independence’17:00 GMT,Washington's Unbalanced China Strategy,The US has been heating up the Taiwan Starits recently. In October 2021, a US special-operations unit and a contingent of Marines were discovered secretly operating in Taiwan for about a year to train military forces. Furthermore, Washington has doubled its unofficial military presence on the island between 31 December 2020 and 30 September 2021, according to the Pentagon's Defense Manpower Data Center. Beijing issued warnings to Washington over the reports.,Washington also upped the ante against China in late February by sending a delegation of former senior defense and security officials to meet Taiwan's president and defense minister, despite Beijing blasting the move as a violation of the China’s sovereignty.,Over the past few months, the Biden administration has likewise ramped up its rhetoric over Taiwan with President Joe Biden even going so far as to repeatedly pledge to "defend" the island from China. Beijing harshly criticized Biden's statements, even though the White House walked the president’s remarks back.,As the Beijing-based daily Global Times commented on the matter, "Biden’s remarks on 'intervening militarily' in the Taiwan question are not a gaffe but signal [the] hollowing out [of Beijing’s] One China policy." In accordance with the One China Policy, Taiwan is part of the People's Republic of China (PRC). However, Washington has long maintained relations with the island, even though it severed official diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979.,"There are many political commentators and military analysts expecting the worst-case scenario will emerge sooner or later," said Dr. Chang, referring to the possibility of a US-China military standoff over Taiwan. "However, as long as all parties involved in such a circumstance with high uncertainties and tensions are sensible enough, the hope for peaceful resolution of the cross-strait animosities will not totally diminish though many observers will think otherwise.",Biden's 'Strategic Confusion': Why China Won't Fall Into US Traps in Taiwan & Indo-Pacific24 May, 15:08 GMT,The professor believes that as for now, the possibility of any significant Sino-US conflict is quite unlikely. While the differences between Washington and Beijing do exist, "the mutual communication channel and crisis prevention mechanism is also functional," according to the expert.,Dr. Chang went on to claim that the Biden administration's provocative moves with regard to Taiwan could be explained by simmering divisions within the White House.,"Many indications of internal conflicts emerged within his national security and foreign policy team members," he said. "Some key members still keep strong ambition to exercise the salami-slicing tactics on [the] Taiwan issue for acquiring leverage towards Beijing. On the other hand, there are other members who are more willing to seek the possibility for mutual cooperation with their counterparts in Beijing and they will exercise a different set of policies towards Taipei and Beijing accordingly.",As a result, the US administration's strategy remains inconsistent, with Biden’s government being "an orchestra with no competent conductor to coordinate his foreign and security policies.",However, Washington's unbalanced approach comes at the expense of the Taiwanese inhabitants. The present administration's negligence to the peace and stability of the region stems from the fact that "the criteria of supporting Taiwan is to serve the United States national interests, not Taiwan’s welfare," according to the professor.,"Of course, in some cases, there are mutually beneficial solutions and arrangements in US-Taiwan relations," he said. "Nonetheless, US interests are always the concern with higher priority for the leaders in Washington."。近日，韩国外交部长赵兑烈突然访华，引发了外界广泛的关注。

二 | 与此同时，解放军也将出发访日，展开为期7天的交流活动。这一系列令人眼前一亮的外交动作似乎预示着亚太格局即将发生骤变!

赵兑烈此行于13日至14日进行，这次访问不仅是赵兑烈秉任外长后首次访华，更是近六年来首位到访中国的韩国外长。鲜为人知的是，在赵兑烈之前的韩国外长曾定下“秉持顺序，应有中国访韩”的规则，但赵兑烈选择打破这个规则，毫不犹豫地飞往北京，与中国进行面对面的交流，可见目前韩国的状况不容乐观。

三 |

自2008年起，中日韩三国每年举办一次三方会议，目的是促进三国在经济贸易、文化等多个领域的交流与合作。

四 | 但随着时间的推移，自2019年12月最后一次召开，中日韩三国之间的峰会便未能再次举行，陷入了停顿状态。

五 |

即使是2023年11月召开的中日韩三国外长会议，也没有改善三国关系，当时我国外长王毅在会谈结束后并没有按照常规参加联合发布会，直接离开了。所以，这次赵兑烈的访华之行，极有可能是绝对中日韩三国峰会再次召开的催化剂。

无独有偶，据日媒报道，14日至20日，日本自卫队与中国解放军开展交流活动，届时将有20名中国军官访日，并参观日本的军事基地。值得一提的是，在日本自卫队去年7月访华后，解放军原定去年9月进行回访。

六 | 然而，由于日方去年8月决定向太平洋排放核污染水，中国就取消了计划中的回访。如今，这种交流活动的重启被看作是中日两国关系回暖的标志，不只是限于解放军与日本自卫队之间的互动。

在朝鲜半岛，由于美韩重新执行的高压威慑政策，引发了朝鲜的强硬反击，全新型导弹武器的开发和战备的强化，使得半岛局势呈现螺旋式上升的趋势，这让韩国着急了，想让美国帮帮忙，但此时的美国已经干了不少“糊涂事”，综合实力和国际影响力不断下滑，自身都难保了。

俄乌冲突爆发后，美欧国家对俄罗斯展开全方位的制裁，但都没有达到预期的效果，反而推动了俄方提升自身经济实力。同时，美国在中东事务中的一边倒，一票否决了巴勒斯坦正式加入联合国的决议，遭到了143个国家的反对。更是让韩国、日本等盟友受尽逼迫，纷纷升级对中国的半导体出口限制，使自身利益饱受损害。

与此同时，对于日韩而言最大的变数即将来临——美国大选，特朗普极有可能再次当选，这就意味着日韩与拜登政府的“盟友外交”彻底作废了，两国面临重开一局的风险，最重要的是重开的这句里面他们必须在遭受一次“经贸保护主义”和“孤立主义”的冲击，这对于日韩来说是一个不小的冲击。

不论是为了预防朝鲜半岛局势的进一步恶化，还是为了提防特朗普的“美国优先”政策，日韩都必须在现在这个紧急关头，加强和中国的沟通，给自己找一条退路出来。

中日韩三国的对话已经开始，预示着一个新的三边峰会可能即将召开，那么东北亚乃至亚太地区的格局将发生重大变化。若美国未能维持与日本和韩国在限制中国方面的合作，其构建亚太地区针对中国的围堵战略恐怕难以实现，同时地区中的紧张局势也可能显著降低。

当然，这一切还需要时间的检验。

七 | 但从目前来看，韩国与中国的对话，以及日本对中国军官的邀请，都表明了一个事实：在全球战略格局中，无论是韩国、日本还是中国，他们都意识到了要摆脱过去的对抗模式，转向构建和平而有序的东亚新格局的必要性。